Brazil stands at a critical juncture in reaffirming its commitment to combating climate change. The nation must embrace an active, consistent, and ambitious approach in its New Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) and the formulation of its Participatory Climate Plan. Its targets should be aligned with achieving carbon neutrality by 2050, supported by clear guidelines, strategies, and effective policies to reduce emissions across all sectors of the Brazilian economy.
These instruments will not only set targets and strategies for decarbonization and improved adaptation to climate change but will also play a crucial role in positioning Brazil as a leader in the international climate dialogue, especially ahead of COP 30. Recognizing this responsibility, the Brazilian Coalition on Climate, Forests, and Agriculture reaffirms its commitment to supporting and actively contributing to the development of the Participatory Climate Plan, as well as an ambitious, robust, and achievable NDC that harnesses Brazil’s full potential.
Land use, including the Brazilian agricultural sector, plays a major role in both the country’s emissions and most greenhouse gas (GHG) removals from the atmosphere, offering significant potential to drive climate solutions. Efforts such as combating deforestation and native vegetation degradation, adopting low-carbon practices like integrated crop-livestock-forest systems, agroforestry, no-till farming, and crop rotation, alongside reforestation, forest restoration, and the recovery of degraded areas, clearly demonstrate how food security and rural production can align with the challenges of low-carbon activities. These practices not only reduce emissions but also capture substantial amounts of carbon from the atmosphere, reinforcing agriculture’s pivotal role in achieving the country’s voluntary targets. Moreover, protected areas, both public and private, deliver critical environmental services, ensuring the conservation of biodiversity and natural resources.
Nearly half of Brazil’s national emissions are linked to deforestation, and according to MapBiomas, over 93% of the deforested areas in 2023 showed signs of illegality. In the Amazon, despite a downward trend, it is crucial to recognize that overcoming the challenge of halting deforestation in this biome will demand even greater efforts from both public and private sectors. In the Cerrado, which has now surpassed the Amazon in terms of deforested area, it will be essential to refine command and control measures and, most importantly, to implement public policies and incentives—particularly at the state level—that address the underlying drivers of deforestation.
Alongside the drafting of the new NDC, the federal government is spearheading the development of Sectoral Mitigation and Adaptation Plans. To support and assess scenarios for these plans, the Brazilian Land Use and Energy Systems (BLUES) model, developed by Coppe/UFRJ, is being employed. The BLUES model integrates data from two modules—one focused on energy, industry, and waste, and the other on land use, land-use change, and forests. The parameters used in these models align with those globally adopted by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and include specific adaptations tailored to Brazil’s context.
The land-use module is notably opaque. During the consultation process presentations, the parameters and conversion factors for emissions/removals applied to each technology or activity considered in the model were not clearly explained, nor were the associated costs. This lack of transparency generates considerable uncertainty about its application, particularly in forming the basis of Brazil’s new NDC.
The Brazilian Coalition asserts that the efforts to formulate the new target under the NDC, as well as the development of sectoral mitigation and adaptation plans within the Climate Plan, require greater integration and coordination. In this context, the Coalition deems the following actions as imperative to advance the NDC process and the Participatory Climate Plan:
Brazil faces the historic task of leading the dialogue between developed and developing countries, forging connections in the lead-up to COP 30. Its extensive biodiversity, carbon removal capacity, and relatively clean energy matrix place it in a unique position to mediate global discussions on energy transition and decarbonization. To fulfill this role, Brazil must adopt a proactive agenda that includes combating deforestation, strengthening regenerative agriculture, developing a transparent and effective carbon market, and prioritizing the well-being of its people.
During its G20 presidency, Brazil introduced a fresh perspective by elevating the importance of climate, nature, and equity within the global economic agenda, focusing on themes such as financing the bioeconomy, innovative mechanisms for nature-based solutions, and payments for environmental services. At COP 30, Brazil has the opportunity to solidify its position as a global leader in the climate agenda.
The Brazilian Coalition on Climate, Forests, and Agriculture reaffirms its unwavering commitment to an ambitious climate agenda that unites diverse sectors in pursuit of shared objectives. The formulation of Brazil’s new NDC must be characterized by transparency, broad participation, pragmatism, and ambition, ensuring that the country not only meets its international commitments but also serves as a beacon of sustainable development.
.
—
The Brazilian Coalition on Climate, Forests and Agriculture is a movement made up of more than 400 organizations, including agribusiness entities, companies, civil society organizations, the financial sector and the academia.